Premier Danielle Smith continues to walk a careful line on Alberta separatism, insisting she prefers the province to remain part of Canada, even as her actions and rhetoric open the door for an independence referendum as early as 2026. According to a report from CBC News, Smith maintains that acknowledging separatist sentiment is not the same as encouraging it.
Still, by easing the rules for a potential secession vote and presenting an aggressive list of demands to Prime Minister Mark Carney, political observers suggest she may be fueling the very movement she claims she wants to suppress.
Political scientist Feo Snagovsky told CBC News that Smith’s demands for new pipelines to all three ocean coasts, significant financial transfers, and the elimination of major federal climate policies are unlikely to be fulfilled by Ottawa. This, he argues, sets the federal government up for failure and could allow Smith to frame any partial concessions as inadequate, further feeding alienation. Smith has already warned of a looming national unity crisis if her demands are not met. Meanwhile, the separatist movement is actively collecting signatures for a referendum petition, with the target threshold recently lowered by Smith’s government.
A recent Angus Reid poll, as cited by CBC News, found that while 36 percent of Albertans would vote or lean toward voting for separation, support among Smith’s United Conservative Party supporters jumps to 65 percent. This growing sentiment has sparked debates within the UCP, where some members are pushing for the party to formally adopt separatist policies. Past efforts by Alberta conservatives to suppress divisive debates have often resulted in splinter parties, a pattern that could repeat if Smith is perceived as avoiding the issue.
At the same time, Alberta faces a host of other challenges beyond the separatism debate. The provincial economy is under strain from falling oil prices, and ongoing investigations into Alberta Health Services procurement, including the controversial firing of its CEO, continue to cast a shadow over Smith’s administration. A measles outbreak and labor unrest among teachers and public employees add to the mounting pressures on the government. These issues are unfolding as Smith prepares to launch a province-wide listening tour, modeled after Jason Kenney’s Fair Deal Panel, but this time with the premier herself leading the effort.
In remarks to Postmedia, Smith argued that many Albertans feel as threatened by federal Liberal policies as other Canadians feel about the economic impacts of Donald Trump. She suggested the anger that has traditionally been directed at Ottawa is now evolving into broader anti-Canada sentiment. As Smith prepares for an uncertain political future, she will have to navigate the complex dynamics within her party, manage the province’s economic and health crises, and decide whether to take an active stand against separation or let the tide of discontent roll forward unchecked.
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