Bitcoin (BTC) has reached new record highs, climbing above $111,000 during the Asian trading session and drawing increased attention from investors and analysts. However, some experts warn that the cryptocurrency’s rapid ascent may face resistance around the $115,000 mark due to hedging behavior by market makers, an often unseen but powerful market force.
Alexander S. Blume, founder and CEO of SEC-registered investment advisor Two Prime, believes rising demand from corporate treasuries is helping drive the price upward. “The OTC supply may be drying up, driving up prices,” Blume told CoinDesk. “This would not be reflected in exchange trading volumes or the derivatives market. If this is the case, get ready for a wild ride, as more demand is coming on board with a competitive bitcoin corporate treasury environment and, perhaps, a less elastic OTC spot market.”
Blume also pointed to rumors of increasing sovereign demand for bitcoin, suggesting that large, non-public buyers may be playing a role in the rally.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at crypto exchange Bitget, forecast that BTC could reach $180,000 by the end of 2025, citing factors such as strong inflows into spot exchange-traded funds, the slowing post-halving supply growth, and rising institutional adoption. “Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating to Aa1 is another key macro catalyst, sparking renewed interest in BTC and ETH as hedges against fiat risk,” Lee said. “BTC’s ability to hold above $103,000 amid volatility highlights the market’s shift toward crypto as a strategic reserve asset.”
Despite bullish momentum, market makers may begin hedging as prices approach $115,000. Jeff Anderson, head of Asia at STS Digital, explained that options dealers are sitting on significant “positive gamma” at strike levels of $115,000 and higher, according to Deribit options data analyzed by Amberdata.
“Dealers are always on the opposite side of traders’ positions and aim to remain market-neutral,” Anderson said. “When dealers have positive gamma, they must sell more of the underlying asset as its price rises in order to hedge their exposure. This order flow acts as a contrarian force and tends to limit price volatility.”
Anderson noted that the current market is dominated by investors selling higher strike call options to generate additional yield on their spot holdings, a strategy that amplifies dealers’ positive gamma. “There is a lot of positive gamma in the market due to call overwriters,” he said. “They will be more wary of this breakout, and if we can clear the pocket of gamma at $115K, this rally could really start to go.”
As Bitcoin continues to flirt with new highs, the coming days may reveal whether the invisible hand of market structure will slow its climb, or clear the way for the next leg up.
