Canada’s Federal Election Begins Under Cloud of Trade War as Carney, Poilievre Battle for Future Direction

Canada’s 45th federal election is officially underway, with voters set to head to the polls on April 28 in what is shaping up to be one of the most consequential and unpredictable campaigns in recent memory. Prime Minister Mark Carney, just nine days into his new role, visited Governor General Mary Simon on Sunday to request the dissolution of Parliament, triggering a 36-day campaign — the shortest allowed by law — and launching a national debate centered on sovereignty, economics, and the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump.

The campaign begins in the shadow of an escalating trade war with the United States, with President Trump imposing harsh tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum and openly questioning Canada’s independence. His threats of further economic retaliation — including a looming April 2 tariff escalation — have rapidly become the defining issue of the race. Carney, seeking a “strong, positive mandate,” is positioning himself as the leader best equipped to confront the crisis. “President Trump claims that Canada isn’t a real country. He wants to break us so America can own us,” Carney said at Rideau Hall. He vowed to build a stronger domestic economy while delivering a tax cut for the middle class that would benefit dual-income households by up to $825 annually.

Carney, who does not yet hold a seat in the House of Commons, will run in Ottawa’s Nepean riding — right next to the long-held seat of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. The two leaders’ contrasting styles and visions will be at the heart of the campaign. Carney, a former central banker with global experience, is billing himself as a calm, capable manager in turbulent times, while Poilievre is campaigning as an agent of change, eager to undo years of Liberal governance. Launching his campaign from Gatineau, Poilievre pledged to defend Canadian sovereignty, reduce taxes, and fix what he called a “broken” Canada. “You can be respectful and firm,” he said of Trump. “We must be strong enough to stand on our own two feet.”

The Liberals have seen a remarkable rise in polling since Carney assumed leadership, overtaking the Conservatives for the first time in nearly three years, particularly in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The CBC Poll Tracker shows the Liberals with a three-in-four chance of winning the most seats if the election were held today. Meanwhile, support for the NDP and Bloc Québécois has slipped to decade-lows, putting both parties at risk of losing seats. The Green Party is also shifting its approach, with co-leader Jonathan Pedneault set to be the public face of their campaign.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, kicking off his third federal campaign, is appealing to working-class voters and emphasizing the party’s achievements, such as national dental and pharmacare programs. Singh warned against mimicking U.S. politics in the face of Trump’s aggression, saying, “I won’t let anyone tell Canadians that the only way to beat Donald Trump is to become more like his version of the United States.” Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet dismissed Liberal momentum in Quebec and reaffirmed his party’s commitment to Quebec’s autonomy, while the Greens called for record-high voter turnout in a campaign they say is about defending democracy itself.

With less than five weeks to go, the stakes are high, and the outcome is far from certain. As trade tensions deepen and the economy dominates the agenda, Canadians will be deciding not just who governs, but what kind of country Canada should be in the face of rising global uncertainty.