OTTAWA — The first snowfall of the season transformed Parliament Hill into a picturesque snow globe on Wednesday, as Environment Canada unveiled its seasonal forecast predicting a winter that will feel closer to the Canadian norm, albeit warmer than average.
This winter, the El Niño weather pattern, which brought record-breaking warmth last year and limited the iconic Rideau Canal skating season, will give way to the cooler and more variable La Niña. According to meteorologist Gina Ressler, this shift means “a more typical winter” for many Canadians, though above-normal temperatures are still expected in regions such as northern Ontario, Quebec, Nunavut, and Newfoundland and Labrador.
Hudson Bay, in particular, is projected to experience delayed sea ice formation and near-certain above-normal temperatures, a trend linked to the warming climate. For other parts of the country, December may bring above-average temperatures, especially in the Prairies and British Columbia, with conditions expected to normalize by late February. Quebec and the Maritimes may see less snowfall early in the season, while wetter-than-usual conditions are forecast for the Western provinces, Northwest Territories, and Yukon.
Bill Merryfield, a research scientist with Environment Canada, highlighted La Niña’s typical impacts, including increased precipitation for the West Coast and Rockies, which could benefit areas recovering from drought and wildfires. The Atlantic region and Great Lakes are also poised for stormier conditions, with some snow events already observed this season.
Officials emphasized the accelerating effects of climate change, which is causing Canada’s temperatures to rise at roughly twice the global rate, with even greater impacts in the Arctic. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and dampened cooling effects from La Niña on the Pacific Coast reflect this ongoing trend.
To better understand these dynamics, Environment Canada plans to launch a pilot project in 2025 to assess the influence of human-caused climate change on extreme weather. This initiative will compare current climate simulations to pre-industrial greenhouse gas levels to determine how human activity has increased or reduced the likelihood of specific weather events, eventually extending to include extreme precipitation events.
While Environment Canada refrained from predicting whether the Rideau Canal skating rink will reopen this year, the seasonal outlook provides a glimpse of a changing winter landscape shaped by both natural and human factors.
