Canadian travel to the United States has declined far more sharply than early border crossing numbers suggested, according to new research cited by Global News. While initial Statistics Canada figures pointed to a drop of roughly 25 per cent in travel from Canada to the U.S., researchers from the University of Toronto say the true decline may be much deeper when cellphone activity is considered.
The research was conducted by Karen Chapple, Yihoi Jung and Jeff Allen of the University of Toronto’s School of Cities as part of the Mapping Tariffs project. Their analysis found that Canadian visits to major U.S. metropolitan areas fell by a median of 42 per cent, suggesting that fewer Canadians are travelling south, and those who do are visiting fewer places or spending less time there.
Statistics Canada data had already shown a prolonged slowdown in Canadian travel to the U.S., with March marking 14 straight months of decline. According to Global News, April 2026 brought the first annual increase in Canadian return trips to the U.S. since December 2024, with visits rising 1.4 per cent compared with April 2025. However, when compared with April 2024, before the rise in political and trade tensions, Canadian travel to the U.S. was still down about 30 per cent.
The University of Toronto data found that several American tourist destinations were hit especially hard. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, recorded the steepest drop, with Canadian travel down 65.4 per cent when comparing 2024 and 2025 activity with 2025 and 2026. Florida cities including Panama City, Orlando, Cape Coral, Miami, Naples and North Port also ranked among the most affected, along with Yuma, Arizona, Brownsville, Texas, and San Francisco.
Researchers examined cellphone data from Canadian devices between April 2024 and March 2026. A trip was counted when a phone stopped in Canada, then in the U.S., and later returned to Canada. The study reviewed 267 U.S. metropolitan areas and found that 50 of them saw Canadian visits fall by at least 50 per cent. Only Portland, Oregon, Gainesville, Florida, and Cleveland recorded increases.
The findings suggest that traditional border crossing data may not fully capture the scale of the slowdown, especially when it comes to business, trade related travel and freight movement. Researchers also noted that some of the decline may include Canadians who had been living temporarily in the U.S. and later returned to Canada.
The broader decline comes as political tensions, trade disputes and concerns linked to U.S. policy have affected travel behaviour. For more Canadian news and analysis, visit https://www.weeklyvoice.com and the Canada section at https://www.weeklyvoice.com/category/canada.
