Canada’s 2025 federal election reaches its climax today, as voters decide whether to extend Liberal rule under Mark Carney or hand leadership to Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. After a fast-paced campaign dominated by debates over affordability, sovereignty, and U.S. trade relations, Canadians are preparing for one of the closest electoral battles in recent memory.
Campaigning paused briefly on Sunday after a tragic car-ramming attack at Vancouver’s Lapu Lapu Day festival left 11 dead and dozens injured. Prime Minister Carney, visibly emotional, addressed the nation, offering condolences to the victims’ families. Poilievre also condemned the attack, calling it a “senseless act of violence” and expressing solidarity with the Filipino-Canadian community.
Where the Polls Stand
Heading into election day, polls show Carney’s Liberals holding a slim lead over Poilievre’s Conservatives. A Nanos survey released Sunday put Liberal support at 43 percent compared to 38.9 percent for the Conservatives, widening slightly from Saturday’s figures. Analysts suggest Carney’s firm stance against U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats helped reverse a major Conservative advantage earlier in the year.
Carney, a 60-year-old former central banker who replaced Justin Trudeau earlier this year, is seen by many voters as the best candidate to navigate turbulent U.S.-Canada relations. Poilievre, a seasoned MP since 2004, has built his campaign around frustrations with rising living costs, portraying Carney as an extension of Trudeau-era governance.
What to Expect as Votes Are Counted
Polling stations across Canada are open from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. local time. With six time zones, early results are expected first from Atlantic Canada before projections roll in from Central and Western provinces later in the evening.
Approximately 28 million Canadians are registered to vote across 343 ridings, up from 338 in the last election. Advance polling saw record-breaking turnout, with nearly two million Canadians voting on the first day alone.
Given the geographic concentration of Liberal support in urban centers, experts predict that even a narrow national vote margin could give Carney’s party an edge in seat counts. However, it remains unclear whether the Liberals will secure a majority or need the backing of smaller parties to govern.
The Role of Smaller Parties
Performance by smaller parties such as the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois will be closely watched. In past elections, strong NDP and Bloc showings have limited Liberal seat totals, particularly in Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec. However, polls suggest these smaller parties could struggle this time around, potentially aiding the Liberals’ path to retaining power.
As Canada waits for results, one thing is clear: the outcome will shape not just the country’s domestic future, but its standing on the world stage in the face of growing international challenges.
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