Carney Leads Liberals to Minority Government in Dramatic Federal Election

Mark Carney and the Liberal Party have secured a fourth consecutive mandate from Canadians, forming a minority government following a hard-fought election dominated by affordability concerns, rising trade tensions, and growing nationalist sentiment in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric.

As of early Tuesday morning, the Liberals were projected to win or lead in 168 out of 343 ridings—falling just short of the 172 seats required for a majority, but enough to retain power. It marks a significant political debut for Carney, Canada’s former central banker, who replaced Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader just weeks before the vote.

“I chose to enter politics because we need big changes in this country, grounded in Canadian values,” Carney told supporters in Ottawa. He emphasized unity and resilience in his victory speech, pledging to govern for all Canadians, regardless of political stripe.

The election proved costly for the opposition. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre lost his Carleton riding to Liberal challenger Bruce Fanjoy in a major upset. Despite gaining seats and increasing vote share, the Conservatives fell short of overtaking the Liberals, marking the fourth straight election loss for the party. Poilievre’s defeat after nearly 20 years in Parliament has raised immediate questions about his future as party leader.

The New Democratic Party and the Bloc Québécois also suffered heavy losses. The NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, dropped to just seven projected seats, falling below the threshold for official party status. Singh, who lost his Burnaby Central seat to a Liberal challenger, announced his resignation during an emotional speech to supporters. The Bloc Québécois, meanwhile, saw its count fall to an estimated 23 seats, down from 33.

Carney’s rise was swift. Sworn in as prime minister in March following Trudeau’s resignation, the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England leveraged his experience managing financial crises to position himself as a steady hand amid economic uncertainty. He framed the election around preserving Canadian sovereignty and resisting foreign pressure, particularly from Trump’s administration, which has imposed tariffs and hinted at territorial ambitions.

“President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us,” Carney warned in his speech. “That will never, ever happen.”

The Liberal platform sought to distance itself from Trudeau-era policies, including the controversial carbon tax, which Carney scrapped shortly after assuming office. The move, alongside a campaign that portrayed him as a pragmatic outsider with real-world leadership experience, helped reverse early polling trends that favored the Conservatives.

Analysts suggest Trump’s aggressive stance toward Canada, including comments about annexation and new trade penalties, may have inadvertently boosted Liberal support. Conservative endorsements from figures like Elon Musk and Joe Rogan appeared to alienate centrist voters wary of populism and U.S.-style political polarization.

While the Liberals did not secure a majority, the result marks a political comeback and extends the party’s decade-long grip on power. Carney, who represents the Nepean riding in Ottawa, becomes the first prime minister from the Northwest Territories and the first in Canadian history to reach the top job without prior elected experience.

As he prepares to lead a minority government, Carney faces the challenge of navigating a divided electorate. Support for the Conservatives remained strong in rural areas and across the Prairies, highlighting regional fractures that have defined recent elections. Carney will now need to build consensus across party lines to govern effectively.

Despite setbacks, Poilievre addressed his supporters with resolve, vowing to continue as opposition leader. “It will be an honour to continue to fight for you and to be a champion of your cause,” he said.

With the Greens projected to lose one of their two seats and the Bloc and NDP weakened, Carney’s Liberals will have to work strategically to pass legislation and hold the confidence of Parliament. The next chapter of Canadian politics may demand more cooperation than confrontation.