Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre wrapped up his election campaign Sunday night with a final rally in his home riding of Carleton, near Ottawa. Standing on the back of a pickup truck, Poilievre pledged to continue fighting for Canadians, regardless of the outcome. His wife, Anaida Poilievre, was visibly emotional as the two waved to a cheering crowd.
The final week of campaigning revealed unexpected vulnerabilities for the Conservatives, even in ridings like Carleton, once considered among the party’s safest seats. Volunteers were redirected from other parts of the country to shore up support as the race tightened with the Liberals.
Political observers described the 2025 campaign as unpredictable, noting that U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated comments about annexing Canada and imposing tariffs became a dominant theme. While Poilievre’s campaign emphasized change after what it called a “lost Liberal decade,” Trump’s actions shifted the public conversation in ways the Conservatives had not anticipated.
Trump’s tariffs and talk of Canada becoming the 51st state stirred Canadian nationalism, leading many voters to rally around Liberal leader and Prime Minister Mark Carney. The Liberals pitched Carney as the best choice to handle an increasingly volatile U.S. relationship — a message that appeared to resonate with voters concerned about sovereignty and economic stability.
Throughout the campaign, Poilievre focused on issues like affordability and government accountability, avoiding direct confrontations with Trump unless events forced him to respond. Despite holding more than two dozen large rallies across the country, the Conservatives faced challenges adapting their messaging to the rapidly evolving political landscape.
Just five days into the campaign, Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs on foreign-made vehicles triggered an immediate reaction. Carney temporarily paused his campaign to meet with cabinet ministers and business leaders, pledging billions to protect Canada’s auto sector and declaring that the era of heavy reliance on the U.S. was over. Poilievre, meanwhile, responded briefly by criticizing Trump but quickly pivoted back to his core domestic issues.
Some analysts noted that while Poilievre’s pointed style as opposition leader resonated strongly with voters frustrated by the Liberals, it left him less prepared for a campaign dominated by international issues. His strength in holding the Trudeau government to account had earlier helped the Conservatives build a 25-point lead in the polls, a gap that dramatically narrowed as the election approached.
On the campaign trail, many Conservative supporters remained confident of a “silent majority” poised to deliver a surprise win. There was also a sense of unease among some attendees, who feared unrest if the Conservatives fell short.
Polls heading into election day suggested the Liberals had a slight edge, with a Leger survey showing the Liberals at 43 per cent and the Conservatives at 39 per cent. Analysts pointed out that while Conservative support was high, matching the level that secured Stephen Harper a majority government in 2011, the regional distribution of votes could still favor the Liberals.
Observers noted that even if the Liberals form government again, the high level of Conservative support would likely trigger intense internal discussions about the party’s future strategy. Despite the campaign’s twists and challenges, the Conservatives had succeeded in maintaining a strong base — even if it may not be enough to capture government this time.
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