Conservatives Lead as Liberals Gain Ground, NDP in Freefall Ahead of Election

Nanos Seat Projections Show Tight Race as Election Nears

With Canada on the brink of a federal election, the latest Nanos Research polling data reveals a neck-and-neck contest between the Conservatives (35%) and Liberals (34%), making the upcoming campaign highly volatile. While Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were previously in majority territory, recent seat projections indicate a much closer fight, with Mark Carney’s Liberals gaining ground in key battlegrounds like Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and British Columbia.

Regional Shifts in Seat Projections

• Atlantic Canada: A significant shift back to the Liberals, especially in New Brunswick and P.E.I., where Conservative momentum has waned.
• Quebec: The Bloc Québécois and Liberals are making gains, while the Conservatives have dropped 10 points, now polling in the low teens.
• Ontario: Conservative gains in Ottawa and Toronto have eroded, with several ridings that once leaned blue now considered toss-ups.
• Western Canada: Conservative dominance holds in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, but the Liberals are surging in parts of Edmonton.
• British Columbia: The race is now a three-way battleground, with Vancouver ridings too close to call.

The Trump Factor and Voter Volatility

A key influence on voter sentiment is U.S. President Donald Trump, whose tariffs and annexation rhetoric have driven economic and sovereignty concerns to the forefront. His impact on Canada’s election is unprecedented, as both Poilievre and Carney position themselves as the best leader to counter Trump’s policies.

Despite recent Liberal momentum, Nanos Research Chair Nik Nanos warns of extreme volatility, with the election call acting as a “massive reset” that could dramatically shift the race.

With uncertainty at an all-time high, both parties must navigate a rapidly evolving campaign landscape, where Trump’s influence, economic anxieties, and voter mobilization will determine the outcome of what is shaping up to be one of Canada’s most unpredictable elections in recent history.