Cross-Border Travel to the U.S. Hits Post-COVID Lows as Canadians Stay Away

Cross-border trips from Canada to the United States have plunged to their lowest levels since the COVID-19 era, with nearly 500,000 fewer travellers crossing the land border in February compared to the same period last year. Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) suggests a clear shift in travel patterns, with economic and political tensions playing a key role.

Declining Travel Amid Political and Trade Tensions

The number of Canadians entering the U.S. in passenger vehicles fell sharply from 2.69 million in February 2024 to 2.22 million last month—a drop of over 17%. This marks the lowest cross-border traffic since April 2022, when pandemic-related restrictions were still in place. Experts say this steep decline reflects growing tensions between the two countries, fueled by President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and provocative rhetoric, including remarks about Canada potentially becoming the 51st U.S. state.

Economic and Social Factors Driving the Decline

Canadians are increasingly “voting with their wallets” and avoiding U.S. trips, according to cross-border businesses. Len Saunders, an immigration lawyer based in Blaine, Washington, notes that fewer Canadians are crossing the border for shopping, gas, and leisure activities. Duty-free stores along the Canadian side of the border report an 80% drop in sales compared to pre-pandemic levels, calling the situation “catastrophic.”

Beyond consumer sentiment, Trump’s new tariffs—25% levies on Canadian steel, aluminum, and other goods—are also discouraging travel. Prime Minister Mark Carney has urged Canadians to “choose Canada” by vacationing domestically and supporting local businesses.

Impact on Various Travel Sectors

• Land Travel: The 23% drop in automobile crossings reported by Statistics Canada mirrors the CBP findings. The travel downturn is similar to declines seen at the height of pandemic lockdowns.
• Air Travel: While air travel to the U.S. saw a slight increase, industry reports suggest a decline in future bookings. Many airline carriers are already witnessing a slowdown in U.S.-bound ticket sales.
• Freight and Commercial Travel: The number of truck drivers crossing into the U.S. fell from 493,000 to 473,000, reflecting economic uncertainty in cross-border trade.

What’s Next?

With additional “retaliatory” tariffs set to take effect on April 2, and tensions between Ottawa and Washington escalating, experts warn that the decline in travel could worsen in the months ahead. Businesses along the border are bracing for continued losses, while the Canadian government is urging residents to spend and travel within the country to counteract economic pressures.

As political and economic uncertainty looms, the once-thriving tradition of Canadians making quick trips to the U.S. for shopping and leisure may be facing a long-term shift.