The Ontario election has so far been a one-sided battle, with opposition parties struggling to make any dent in Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative stronghold. Ford’s bold decision to call a snap election, aimed at securing a “strong mandate” to shield Ontario from U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, appears to be working in his favor. Despite efforts by Marit Stiles’ NDP, Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals, and Mike Schreiner’s Greens to shift the narrative, none have been able to effectively challenge Ford’s momentum.
A recent Postmedia/Leger poll conducted from Feb. 7-9 confirms Ford’s dominance, placing the PCs at 47 percent, significantly ahead of the Liberals (26 percent), NDP (17 percent), Greens (six percent), and the New Blue Party (two percent). The PCs lead in four out of five provincial regions, with Toronto being the only area where the Liberals hold a slight edge. However, Toronto’s voting pattern has had little impact on Progressive Conservative electoral success in past decades.
At the outset, Ford’s election gamble seemed unnecessary. He was already leading a stable majority government and had secured one of Ontario’s strongest mandates in the 2022 election. Why risk it all on an early election call that would cost the province $189 million? The answer is becoming clear—Ford’s strategy is paying off. His handling of Trump’s tariff threats has resonated with voters, with 59 percent of Ontarians and 79 percent of PC supporters approving of his response. His personal approval rating has surged by 19 percent since the start of the campaign.
If Ford’s momentum continues, he could surpass his previous election performances, where he won 40.5 percent of the vote in 2018 and 40.8 percent in 2022. His party could even exceed the 79 seats it held before the election, potentially breaking former Liberal Premier David Peterson’s 1987 record of 95 seats. Ford’s strength lies in his ability to position himself as Ontario’s chief defender against U.S. economic aggression while maintaining a pragmatic approach. He has backed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s tariff-for-tariff strategy but remains open to energy export cuts if necessary, emphasizing that he prefers diplomatic solutions.
Ford has also extended his campaign beyond trade issues, addressing key concerns for Ontario voters. His government allocated $1.8 billion to expand primary healthcare access, pledged a $2-billion fund for water and wastewater infrastructure near new housing developments, and promised to remove tolls from public portions of Highway 407. Additionally, he plans to tunnel a new expressway under Highway 401 and make the 5.7-cent-per-litre provincial gas tax cut permanent.
Meanwhile, the opposition’s attempts to counter Ford’s appeal have fallen flat. Crombie’s proposed tax incentives for first-time home buyers and Stiles’ pledge to add thousands of healthcare professionals have failed to gain traction. In a bizarre move, Crombie challenged Ford to a push-up contest in the gym, a stunt the PC campaign dismissed as unserious and desperate. With two weeks remaining in the election, Ford appears poised for an overwhelming victory, cementing his position as Ontario’s only real hope in an uncertain political landscape.
