A tentative ceasefire linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran and the United States is showing signs of instability as disagreements persist over fighting in Lebanon and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite both Washington and Tehran declaring success following the announcement of the truce, continuing military activity and unresolved political questions have raised concerns about whether the agreement can hold in the coming days.
Tensions intensified after Israeli airstrikes struck central Beirut, marking one of the deadliest days in Lebanon since the conflict began on February 28. Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel would continue operations against Hezbollah, arguing the group remains a security threat. Iranian officials responded by warning that continued attacks on Hezbollah would lead to stronger reactions, highlighting disagreements over whether Lebanon was included in the ceasefire framework.
At the same time, uncertainty surrounding maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz continues to affect global energy markets. Iranian media suggested the country’s Revolutionary Guard deployed sea mines in the corridor during the conflict, contributing to disruptions in shipping. Although Iran has indicated vessels could eventually resume transit under international norms once hostilities subside, traffic through the strait remains limited, with hundreds of ships still waiting to pass.
Energy markets have reacted sharply to the uncertainty. Brent crude prices climbed significantly after the conflict began and remained elevated as questions persisted about safe navigation through the strait. Analysts note that the passage normally handles roughly one fifth of globally traded oil and gas, meaning prolonged disruption could continue to affect fuel prices and supply chains worldwide.
Another major unresolved issue involves the future of Iran’s nuclear programme and its stockpile of enriched uranium. The United States has called for limits to prevent weaponisation risks, while Iranian officials insist their nuclear activities remain peaceful and must continue. With negotiations expected to address these concerns alongside maritime security and regional proxy activity, the ceasefire remains fragile as diplomatic efforts continue.
