How India-Canada Relations Reached a Historic Low

India and Canada’s diplomatic ties have plunged to unprecedented depths, with both nations expelling top diplomats amid escalating tensions over the assassination of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil. The incident has pushed their historically cordial relationship into uncharted territory, marking a significant shift in bilateral ties.

The roots of the current conflict lie in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegations that Indian agents were involved in Nijjar’s killing in June 2023. India has categorically denied these accusations, calling them “preposterous.” Canadian police, however, claim they have uncovered extensive evidence linking Indian agents to criminal activities, including homicides and extortion targeting pro-Khalistan supporters in Canada. These developments have strained relations, exacerbated by India’s longstanding concerns over Canada’s failure to curb Khalistani separatist activities within its borders.

This is not the first time India-Canada relations have faced challenges. The two nations experienced a cooling of ties after India’s nuclear test in 1974, which Canada claimed was conducted using plutonium from a reactor it had gifted for peaceful purposes. While relations improved in the 21st century, with former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper fostering strong economic and educational ties with India, the Khalistan issue has reemerged as a contentious point under Trudeau’s leadership.

The Khalistan movement, which seeks a separate Sikh homeland, has a deep history rooted in the insurgency of the 1980s and 1990s in India. Today, Canada is home to the largest Sikh diaspora outside Punjab, with approximately 770,000 Sikhs. This community holds significant political influence, with Sikhs occupying 15 seats in Canada’s House of Commons. However, as India’s diaspora in Canada diversifies, including a growing population of Hindus and immigrants from Gujarat and southern India, there is less sympathy for Sikh separatism among Indo-Canadians.

Trudeau’s approach has drawn sharp criticism from New Delhi. His perceived pandering to Sikh voters, illustrated by his controversial remarks during the 2020 Indian farmers’ protests and his acknowledgment of the number of Sikhs in his cabinet, has further fueled tensions. Indian officials argue that Trudeau’s government has ignored repeated warnings about pro-Khalistani elements in Canada, exacerbating the current crisis.

Despite the deteriorating diplomatic ties, people-to-people connections between India and Canada remain robust. Canada hosts 1.3 million Indian-origin residents, or about 4% of its population, and India has been the top source of international students in Canada since 2018. These deep cultural and economic ties provide a foundation for future reconciliation, but immediate prospects for repairing high-level bilateral relations appear dim, especially as Trudeau’s government faces significant domestic challenges and heads into a crucial election year.

Experts suggest that this crisis reflects a fundamental disconnect between the two nations. What India sees as a serious security threat, Canada views as protected political activism and free speech. Without mutual concessions, this divide will likely persist. For now, India-Canada relations remain at their lowest point, and the path to recovery will require significant political will and diplomatic finesse.