How Trump’s Tariffs Will Impact Grocery Prices in Canada

With U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canadian goods set to take effect on Tuesday, February 4, Canadian grocery prices are expected to rise sharply, particularly for imported fresh produce, packaged foods, and essential household goods. Canada relies heavily on the U.S. for fruits, vegetables, dairy, and processed foods, meaning consumers could feel the effects of these tariffs almost immediately.

Why Grocery Prices Will Increase

Canada imports over 60% of its vegetables and 80% of its fruits from the United States, especially during the winter months when domestic production is limited. Tariffs will make U.S. imports more expensive, leading to:

• Higher costs for grocery stores, which will be passed on to consumers.
• Increased transportation expenses, as supply chains adjust to new pricing.
• Limited alternatives, since sourcing from other countries could take time.

Which Food Items Will Be Most Affected?

Certain grocery items are heavily dependent on U.S. imports, and these will likely see the sharpest price hikes:

• Fresh produce: Prices for lettuce, tomatoes, cucumbers, oranges, grapes, apples, and berries could rise by 10-25%.
• Dairy products: Cheese, yogurt, and milk-based goods from the U.S. may become more expensive.
• Processed foods: Breakfast cereals, canned goods, peanut butter, and packaged snacks could see notable price increases.
• Meat and poultry: Though Canada produces much of its own meat, some U.S.-sourced poultry and beef products may become costlier.

Will Canadian Alternatives Help?

While Canadian-grown food options exist, they are not enough to fully replace U.S. imports:

• Greenhouse-grown vegetables and locally sourced meats could see a demand surge, further increasing their prices.
• Canadian frozen produce could offer an alternative, but not all consumers prefer frozen over fresh.
• Dairy and eggs may see less of an impact, but certain cheese imports could rise in price.

The Impact on Canadian Consumers

• Low-income families may struggle with food affordability as prices rise.
• Restaurants and food businesses will face higher ingredient costs, leading to more expensive menu prices.
• Retailers may start importing from Mexico and South America, but logistics and quality concerns could pose challenges.

What’s Next?

As Canada prepares retaliatory tariffs, the situation could escalate, potentially affecting even more products. If tariffs remain in place for months, Canadians may need to adjust their shopping habits, seeking out local alternatives and budget-friendly options.

The grocery sector is bracing for a turbulent period, and household food budgets will likely take a hit in the coming weeks.