In a bold political move, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has officially pulled the plug on the 2022 supply-and-confidence agreement that provided crucial support to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government. The decision, which Singh announced via a pre-recorded video on social media, brings an early end to the deal that was initially set to last until June 2025, creating significant instability in Parliament and potentially paving the way for a snap election.
The agreement, forged in the wake of political uncertainty during the spring of 2022, allowed the Liberals to rely on the 24 NDP members of Parliament to back them on key confidence votes, ensuring the survival of their 154-member minority government. Without the guaranteed support of the NDP, the Liberals are left vulnerable, relying on vote-by-vote negotiations to pass legislation and avoid losing the confidence of the House of Commons. However, this move does not automatically trigger an election. The NDP could still support the Liberals on a case-by-case basis, maintaining the fragile balance of power in Parliament.
Singh’s decision to end the agreement signals a turning point in Canadian federal politics, as he lashed out at the Liberals for prioritizing corporate interests over the needs of Canadians. “Justin Trudeau has proven again and again he will always cave to corporate greed,” Singh declared in his video statement. “The Liberals have let people down. They don’t deserve another chance from Canadians.” He warned that Trudeau’s government has failed to deliver on key promises, and he vowed to lead the NDP into the next federal election with the goal of stopping what he described as “Conservative cuts” under Pierre Poilievre.
In his message, Singh positioned himself and the NDP as the only viable option for protecting the interests of workers, families, retirees, and young Canadians from the austerity measures he claims the Conservatives will implement. “The Liberals are too weak, too selfish, and too beholden to corporate interests to fight for people. They cannot be changed, they cannot restore hope, they cannot stop the Conservatives,” Singh said. “But we can.” Singh’s rhetoric focused on positioning the NDP as the party of hope and progress, in contrast to both the Liberals and Conservatives, whom he portrayed as out of touch with the concerns of everyday Canadians.
Despite the heated rhetoric, Singh’s NDP is in a precarious position. The party currently holds just 24 seats in the House of Commons and has seen little political benefit from its support of the Liberals in the eyes of voters. Polling data from the past few months shows the NDP stagnating between 15 and 20 percent support, with many of its voters frustrated by Singh’s decision to support Trudeau, especially as the Liberals have faced criticism for their handling of the cost-of-living crisis and other economic challenges. At the same time, the Conservatives, under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre, have surged in popularity, capitalizing on economic discontent and framing the Liberal-NDP agreement as a “costly coalition.”
Singh’s decision to withdraw from the agreement came after months of internal deliberations within the NDP, which began to question whether the party was gaining anything from its support of the Liberals. Several NDP members and senior representatives within Canada’s labor movement voiced concerns that the deal had run its course. The final straw appears to have been the Trudeau government’s decision to impose binding arbitration to end a labor dispute involving Canada’s two largest railways, a move that angered many within the NDP’s labor base. Singh called the move “cowardly, anti-worker, and proof that [the Liberals] will always cave to corporate greed.”
While the NDP has been critical of the Liberal government in recent months, especially over the slow implementation of pharmacare and other progressive policies, Singh had previously defended the agreement as a way to secure important legislative victories, such as the introduction of a national dental care program and anti-scab legislation. However, several key promises in the agreement remain unfulfilled, including the passage of pharmacare legislation and a promised Safe Long-Term Care Act. Although the NDP has succeeded in pushing through some progressive policies, many in the party feel that the Liberals have been slow to deliver on their commitments, leading to growing frustration.
The collapse of the agreement also comes as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre ramps up his criticism of the Liberals and NDP. Just last week, Poilievre publicly urged Singh to end the agreement and trigger a “carbon tax” election this fall, calling on Canadians to reject what he described as the costly and ineffective policies of the Liberal-NDP coalition. While Singh has resisted calls to bring down the government immediately, his decision to end the agreement sets the stage for potential political showdowns in the coming months.
Although Singh has pulled the NDP out of the deal, the Liberals still have options to maintain power. The government could seek the support of the Bloc Québécois, which holds 32 seats, or continue to negotiate with the NDP on an issue-by-issue basis. However, with public sentiment increasingly turning against the Liberals, especially as inflation and the cost of living continue to dominate headlines, the Trudeau government faces significant challenges in the months ahead.
The NDP’s decision to withdraw from the agreement also comes at a time of rising political polarization in Canada. While the Conservatives have gained ground by focusing on economic issues and appealing to disaffected voters, the Liberals have struggled to regain the momentum they enjoyed during previous election campaigns. Polls suggest that Trudeau’s approval ratings have plummeted, with many Canadians expressing frustration over the government’s handling of inflation, housing affordability, and healthcare. Meanwhile, Singh faces the challenge of rebuilding the NDP’s electoral fortunes, as he seeks to position his party as the champion of working-class Canadians.
The agreement between the Liberals and the NDP, which was negotiated in the aftermath of the 2021 election, was designed to provide stability to a minority government in uncertain times. In exchange for the NDP’s support on confidence votes, the Liberals agreed to advance several progressive priorities, including dental care, pharmacare, and measures to protect workers’ rights. The deal was hailed as a historic agreement that would allow the government to focus on key issues without the constant threat of an election. However, the political landscape has shifted dramatically since the agreement was first signed, with both parties facing new challenges and shifting voter expectations.
As the dust settles from Singh’s announcement, Canadian politics enters a period of uncertainty. While the end of the agreement does not immediately trigger an election, it raises the possibility of increased political instability in Parliament. With the Liberals now vulnerable to losing confidence votes and facing growing pressure from both the Conservatives and NDP, the coming months could see major political developments that reshape the future of the Trudeau government and Canadian politics as a whole.
For now, Jagmeet Singh has made his intentions clear: the NDP will no longer prop up a government it sees as failing to stand up for the middle class, and the party is preparing for what could be a pivotal election in the near future. Whether that election comes sooner or later, one thing is certain—the political landscape in Canada has changed, and the next federal vote could be one of the most consequential in recent memory.
