A new Postmedia-Leger poll suggests that Canada’s federal political landscape remains largely stalled, with voters showing little movement in their opinions of the major parties. The survey, conducted between Nov. 28 and 30, shows the Liberals maintaining 43 per cent support among decided voters, unchanged from early November. The Conservatives slipped slightly to 36 per cent, dropping two points, while the Bloc Québécois rose to nine per cent and the NDP edged up to eight per cent. Despite these shifts, analysts say the numbers point to an electorate that has not yet been persuaded by any clear alternative.
Andrew Enns, executive vice-president at Leger, told Postmedia that the polling highlights a political environment where neither of the major parties has secured a direct path to victory. He noted that recent political developments, including a Conservative resignation, a floor crossing, the passage of the 2025 federal budget and major project announcements, have done little to sway public sentiment. Enns described voters as effectively “parked,” waiting to see whether the new Liberal government delivers on policy promises before evaluating the broader field.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval numbers remain stable, with 51 per cent of Canadians satisfied with his performance and 38 per cent dissatisfied. Overall satisfaction with the Liberal government stands at 49 per cent. Support for federal opposition leaders, by contrast, continues to lag. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre holds a satisfaction rating of 31 per cent, while Green Leader Elizabeth May sits at 26 per cent. Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet has 19 per cent approval, and NDP interim leader Don Davies sits at 17 per cent. Carney leads comfortably as the preferred prime minister at 40 per cent, ahead of Poilievre at 28 per cent.
The poll highlights a significant level of uncertainty, especially among women. Thirty-one per cent of women surveyed said they did not know which leader they would choose for prime minister, nearly double the rate recorded among men. Enns said this ambivalence suggests an opportunity for all parties to strengthen their case to undecided voters as the country enters the new year.
Among Conservative supporters, 78 per cent said Poilievre should remain leader, though respondents from other political camps expressed the opposite sentiment. Enns noted that while these results do not amount to an overwhelming endorsement for Poilievre within his party, they also do not signal major discontent. The survey, which polled 1,579 Canadians online, was weighted by demographic factors such as age, region and language. Although a margin of error cannot be assigned to online polls, a probability sample of similar size would carry a margin of error of roughly 2.47 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
