A new poll shows that Northern Canadians view the United States under President Donald Trump as the greatest threat to Canada’s Arctic security, even more than Russia or China. The survey, conducted by Québec-based L’Observatoire de la politique et de la sécurité de l’Arctique (OPSA), revealed that 37 percent of respondents identified the U.S. as the top danger to the North. Russia followed closely at 35 percent, while China was cited by 17 percent.
Mathieu Landriault, director of OPSA, said the results are surprising and troubling, particularly given the traditionally cooperative security relationship between Canada and the U.S. He noted that the sentiment is especially strong in Yukon, which borders Alaska, and in Nunavut, where Trump’s repeated comments about annexing Greenland have caused unease. Trump has also reignited talk about Canada becoming the “51st state,” a remark he made again in a recent speech to U.S. military leaders.
The findings come as Global Affairs Canada warns of growing instability in the Arctic. Briefing materials prepared for Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand highlight climate change, emerging shipping lanes, competition for critical minerals, and increasing Russian and Chinese activity in the region. They also caution that Indigenous communities and Northern residents are targets of disinformation campaigns, often linked to Moscow and Beijing.
Security analysts note that Trump’s rhetoric on annexation plays into Russian narratives portraying NATO and Canada as pawns of U.S. interests in the Arctic. Reports from European and Canadian research institutes confirm that Russia has intensified disinformation, cyber operations, and infrastructure interference to weaken Western influence in the North.
The OPSA survey, conducted in May with a sample of 609 voting-aged residents in Canada’s northern territories, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.97 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The results suggest growing skepticism among Northerners about U.S. intentions, raising concerns for future Canada-U.S. cooperation in the Arctic.
