Ontario’s 2025 budget has unveiled a grim financial outlook, with Premier Doug Ford’s government projecting a staggering $14.6 billion deficit for the next fiscal year, largely driven by the escalating trade war with the United States. The budget, tabled Thursday at Queen’s Park, marks a significant departure from the province’s previous fiscal plans, with a deeper deficit and slower road to balance than anticipated last fall.
In the face of rising tariffs under U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, the Ford government is prioritizing massive spending on relief programs, including a $5 billion emergency fund dubbed the Protect Ontario Account, $9 billion in tax deferrals for businesses until October, and targeted grants of up to $40 million for trade-impacted communities. Additionally, the budget sets aside $20 million for retraining workers in areas hit by mass layoffs. These measures, Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy argued, are essential to help businesses and communities withstand the economic turbulence.
Despite Ford’s campaign promises to protect Ontario’s economic future, the numbers reveal an increasingly challenging environment. Revenue forecasts have been slashed, job creation projections halved, and housing starts are expected to fall by nearly 3,000 units compared to last year. The province’s path to a balanced budget has now been delayed until 2027-28, with a nearly $8 billion deficit still expected in 2026-27. If the U.S. tariffs worsen, Ontario’s deficit could balloon further to $17.1 billion, according to the budget.
Critics swiftly condemned the budget as inadequate. NDP Leader Marit Stiles dismissed it as a “Band-Aid budget” that offers little comfort to families, frontline workers, or industries facing uncertainty. Liberal finance critic Stephanie Bowman accused the Ford government of failing to deliver meaningful tax relief amid the affordability crisis, while Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner said the province lacks the fiscal strength to respond to the tariffs due to previous spending choices.
The budget also reveals Ontario’s debt is set to climb to nearly $490 billion in 2025-26, a 21 per cent increase since Ford took office in 2020. Notably, interest payments on this debt will exceed the province’s core spending on post-secondary education and justice. While the Ford government argues it must keep investing in infrastructure and workers despite the economic headwinds, critics warn the province is burdening future generations without a credible path forward.
As the economic battle with Trump’s America intensifies, the Ford government has also promised to fight back against potential 100 per cent tariffs on Ontario-made films and has introduced a new bill aimed at speeding up housing development. Yet with housing starts falling and the goal of 1.5 million homes by 2031 slipping out of reach, the province’s economic strategy faces mounting skepticism.
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