Ontario’s ambitious target of building 1.5 million new homes by 2031 is becoming harder to achieve, according to the province’s latest budget projections. The new figures forecast a continued slump in housing construction over the next three years, putting Premier Doug Ford’s flagship promise under mounting pressure. As CBC News reporter Mike Crawley explains, the province’s own numbers indicate that only about one-quarter of the goal will be met by the end of 2026, the halfway mark of the timeline.
The budget forecasts 71,800 housing starts in 2025, followed by 74,800 in 2026 and 82,500 in 2027. So far, Ontario has seen approximately 260,000 housing starts in the first three years since the target was set. To meet the 1.5 million goal, the province would need to more than double its pace, averaging over 218,000 new homes annually in the final five years of the plan.
Eric Lombardi, president of the housing advocacy group More Neighbours Toronto, told CBC News that the measures included in the budget are ineffective. He argued that the government appears to have abandoned its housing promises and is no longer seriously pursuing the target. “The government should acknowledge that it’s clearly not going to make that target,” Lombardi said.
The budget includes a $400 million expansion of existing programs that support municipal infrastructure related to housing, along with $50 million over five years to boost Ontario’s capacity for modular housing construction. However, the government’s core incentive plan, the Building Faster Fund, remains unchanged. Initially launched in 2023, the fund pledged $1.2 billion over three years to municipalities that meet annual construction targets. In its first year, only $280 million was distributed after most municipalities fell short of their goals.
The housing start tracker, used to monitor municipal progress, has not been updated since October 2024. At that time, only 11 of 50 municipalities had met their benchmarks. CBC News reached out to Housing Minister Rob Flack’s office for updated figures and clarification but did not receive a response.
On budget day, Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy reaffirmed the government’s commitment to its housing goal. “We’re not going to relent on trying to achieve that goal,” he said. Still, the projections show housing starts for 2025 and 2026 are both more than 20 percent below what was forecasted in last year’s budget.
Bethlenfalvy partially blamed the revised outlook on global economic challenges, pointing specifically to the impact of new tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump. However, Ontario’s housing slowdown began before Trump returned to office. The 2024 budget had projected 87,900 housing starts for that year, but the actual number ended up being just 74,600.
The Ford government’s housing statistics also include long-term care beds as part of the total count of new homes, a move critics say inflates the actual progress toward the target. Despite the challenges, Bethlenfalvy expressed optimism that under Prime Minister Mark Carney, federal funding for housing will flow more freely and with fewer conditions, helping Ontario meet its goals.
Reactions to the budget were mixed. The Ontario Real Estate Association praised the Ford government’s “pro-housing measures,” urging continued support to help restore affordability. On the other hand, Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner criticized the budget sharply. “This budget utterly fails to even attempt to address the housing affordability crisis,” he said at a press conference.
As Ontario’s housing supply struggles to keep pace with population growth and demand, pressure is mounting on the provincial government to take more aggressive and effective action.
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