Party Leaders Retreat to Safe Seats as Trump Trade War Overshadows Final Election Push

As Canada’s federal election heads into its final weekend, major party leaders are retreating to key battlegrounds—and even traditional strongholds—that appear unexpectedly vulnerable. Liberal Leader Mark Carney, who triggered the snap election on March 23 shortly after replacing Justin Trudeau, has been aggressively targeting regions like Winnipeg and B.C.’s Lower Mainland, hoping to flip critical ridings needed for a potential majority. His campaign, shaped largely by promises to address the housing crisis, recalibrate immigration, and stand firm against U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade measures, has prioritized competitive seats in these final days.

Jonathan Malloy, a political science professor at Carleton University, notes that while early campaign stops followed predictable patterns in vote-rich regions like the GTA, Montreal, and Vancouver, the leaders’ last-minute movements reveal deeper strategic anxieties. Malloy pointed out that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s surprising stop in Saskatoon on Thursday hinted at a potential erosion of traditional Conservative support. “If you’re campaigning in a place like Saskatchewan right before voting day, it usually means you’re defending ground, not gaining it,” Malloy explained.

In contrast, the Liberal strategy appears more offensive than defensive. Carney’s recent push into marginal areas signals confidence, with the goal of snatching enough seats to consolidate his leadership with a majority government. Meanwhile, New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh’s repeated visits to his own Burnaby South riding suggest internal concerns about even holding onto his seat. Generally, Malloy observed, party leaders assume their personal ridings are safe and prefer to bolster their national presence instead of focusing heavily at home.

The Green Party, too, is taking a cautious approach. Co-Leader Elizabeth May has remained primarily in British Columbia, dedicating much of her time to Saanich–Gulf Islands, her own riding. This mirrors a broader defensive posture among smaller parties that are fighting harder for local survival than national expansion. Across the board, leaders’ travel choices reflect a campaign more driven by fear of losing key territories than a sweeping push to new voter bases.

Underlying all the frantic travel and last-minute rallies is a campaign remarkably light on policy debate. Malloy highlighted how all the major parties delayed their official platform releases, choosing instead to focus almost exclusively on leadership narratives. With Trump’s aggressive trade actions looming large over Canadian politics, this election has boiled down to a simple question for many voters: which leader is best equipped to stand up to the storm coming from the south?