Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party remains firmly in majority territory, according to the latest Nanos Research projections, as public support for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals continues to falter. Despite the Liberals’ recent introduction of economic measures such as a temporary GST break and $250 rebate cheques to address affordability concerns, the initiatives have failed to sway voters.
The Conservatives hold 42 percent of national support, significantly ahead of the Liberals at 23 percent and the NDP at 21 percent. This strong lead positions Poilievre to secure a majority government if an election were held today, with projections indicating notable gains for the Conservatives in traditional Liberal strongholds across Ontario, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada.
Regional Shifts and Key Battlegrounds
The Conservatives’ surge is evident in several regions:
- Atlantic Canada: Long-held Liberal ridings, such as those in Newfoundland, are shifting towards the Conservatives or becoming too close to call. Projections show the Liberals holding only St. John’s South–Mount Pearl in this region.
- Quebec: The Conservatives are extending their influence in the Greater Quebec City area, while Bloc Québécois support remains strong. Liberal ridings like Sherbrooke and Compton-Stanstead are now toss-ups.
- Ontario: The Conservatives are mounting a significant challenge in vote-rich areas such as Brampton, Mississauga, and southwestern Ontario, while traditional Liberal ridings like Kingston and the Islands are now competitive.
- British Columbia: Coastal ridings traditionally held by the NDP are now contested by the Conservatives, while Liberal support is dwindling, with only Surrey-Newton projected to remain red.
The Prairies continue to be a Conservative stronghold, while Vancouver Island and northern Vancouver see increasing NDP competition against a rising Conservative presence.
Vote Splitting and Strategic Advantage
Nanos Research Chair Nik Nanos attributes the Conservatives’ lead partly to vote-splitting on the left between the Liberals and NDP. This dynamic has enabled the Conservatives to convert more seats in critical battlegrounds like Ontario. “The double whammy of NDP competition and Conservative gains is tipping the scales,” Nanos explained.
Challenges for the Liberals
The Liberals face mounting challenges as they attempt to recover from a difficult year. Their economic initiatives have yet to shift public opinion, and their fortunes are further compounded by the Conservatives’ relentless criticism. Meanwhile, Poilievre is positioned to ride what Nanos calls “a blue wave of change,” with his party’s strategy focused on maintaining its lead while avoiding major missteps.
Outlook and Methodology
While the next election could still bring surprises, the current landscape strongly favors the Conservatives. Nanos emphasized that the Liberals are relying on the hope of a misstep by Poilievre or his team, but noted that the Conservative leader has thus far been disciplined in his approach.
The projections are based on Nanos Research’s four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews with Canadians aged 18 and over, weighted using the latest census data. These results reflect a consistent trend of growing Conservative support and waning Liberal influence as the political landscape continues to evolve.
