The geopolitical landscape of South Asia is undergoing a dramatic shift, shaped by old colonial borders, renewed security threats, and the complex relationships between Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan. A recent wave of violence across all three countries has raised fresh concerns, pushing the region into a period of uncertainty that has roots stretching back more than a century.
Recent events across the region point to a troubling evolution. Attacks in Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan have not only escalated tensions but also revealed deep fractures in long-standing alliances. As diplomacy falters and security risks grow, civilians continue to pay the price, while global powers watch closely, wary of a conflict that could spill beyond South Asia.
Much of today’s volatility can be traced to the Durand Line, drawn in 1893 by British official Henry Mortimer Durand and Afghan leader Abdur Rahman Khan. What was once the boundary between Afghanistan and British-ruled India turned into the Afghanistan-Pakistan border after the 1947 Partition. For Afghans, the line has always been viewed as a colonial imposition that divides Pashtun communities. To this day, no Afghan government has formally recognized it, and Afghanistan was the only country to oppose Pakistan’s entry into the United Nations.
Despite this bitter historical backdrop, Pakistan became a major supporter of Afghan mujahideen fighters during the Soviet war in the 1980s and later backed the Afghan Taliban until they retook Kabul in 2021. But relations sharply deteriorated as Pakistan accused Afghanistan of harbouring the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the militant group responsible for a violent insurgency since 2007. Afghanistan rejects the accusation, widening the distrust between the neighbours.
Into this tension steps India, whose growing engagement with Afghanistan has alarmed Pakistan. Islamabad maintains that India supports the Afghan Taliban and, indirectly, the TTP, allegations India strongly denies. In October 2025, as conflict raged along the Afghan-Pakistan border, Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi made a high-profile visit to New Delhi to strengthen ties — a development Pakistan viewed with unease.
2025 has already proven to be one of the most volatile years in the region. In April, 26 people were killed in an attack in Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir. India blamed Pakistan, which denied any involvement. This was followed in May by four days of missile and drone exchanges between India and Pakistan before a ceasefire took hold. By October, new clashes erupted on the Afghan-Pakistan frontier, leading to airstrikes by Pakistan inside Afghanistan just days after a temporary truce.
Efforts at diplomacy have repeatedly broken down. Negotiations between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Türkiye on November 8 collapsed without progress on the TTP dispute. Tensions escalated further when a car bomb exploded in New Delhi on November 10, killing at least 13 people. India called it a terror incident but refrained from pointing the finger at Pakistan. Within a day, a suicide attack in Islamabad killed 12 people. Pakistan blamed the TTP, while both India and Afghanistan denied any involvement.
Today, Pakistan finds itself increasingly boxed in — geographically challenged by Afghanistan to the west and India to the east, and politically pressured by rising insecurity on both fronts. India and Pakistan remain nuclear-armed rivals, and Afghanistan, despite decades of conflict, has demonstrated resilience against global powers.
With the stakes this high, the path forward hinges on restraint, diplomacy, and a recognition that regional peace benefits all. Whether these neighbours can break the cycle of suspicion and violence remains one of the most urgent questions facing South Asia — and the world.
