As U.S. President Donald Trump pushes ahead with his ambitious “Golden Dome” missile defense system, experts are raising major concerns about its feasibility, cost, and geopolitical implications, while Canada cautiously considers its potential involvement.
Trump’s proposed plan, modeled loosely after Israel’s Iron Dome, envisions a massive missile shield capable of intercepting attacks from land, sea, air, and eventually space. But unlike the Iron Dome, which protects a country smaller than Vancouver Island, Trump’s system aims to defend the entire North American continent using both current and yet-to-be-developed technologies.
Wilfrid Laurier University professor Alistair Edgar warned that the Golden Dome could escalate the militarization of outer space, triggering an arms race. “Once you start putting interceptors and sensors into orbit, adversaries will respond,” Edgar said. “It challenges global norms about not weaponizing space.”
Concerns about the program’s broader impact have already emerged. China has voiced “serious concern” over the plan, describing it as offensive and destabilizing. Russia has suggested it may reopen talks with Washington about nuclear arms control if the project moves forward.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed that discussions about joining the Golden Dome initiative are underway at high levels. He said the government is treating the missile threat seriously and is evaluating the possibility of participating through financial investment or sensor development. However, he declined to commit to a dollar figure or specific role.
Experts remain deeply skeptical about the project’s timeline and budget. Trump has pitched a three-year completion target with a $175 billion price tag. But the U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates costs could rise into the hundreds of billions, while Edgar and others say it could take up to 20 years and cost as much as $1 trillion.
“This is something futuristic and unproven,” said former Canadian defence minister Peter MacKay. “The scale and technical complexity are unlike anything attempted before.”
Beth Fischer, a University of Toronto professor who studies U.S. defence policy, compared Golden Dome to Ronald Reagan’s 1980s Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), widely known as “Star Wars.” Like SDI, she noted, the technology needed for Trump’s plan may simply not exist yet — and may never work as intended.
While the U.S., Russia, and China are furthest ahead in military space capabilities, other nations are catching up. Canada already plays a key role in North American airspace surveillance through NORAD, but it opted out of George W. Bush’s national missile defense program in the early 2000s. As a result, Canada has no say in U.S. launch decisions involving incoming threats.
Fischer noted that although Canada could benefit from research and development opportunities if it joins the Golden Dome, the real influence would likely remain in American hands. “If we’re treated as junior partners, we won’t be leading on innovation,” she said.
Historical examples add to the caution. Countries like the U.K., Germany, and Italy participated in Reagan’s SDI but gained little in terms of decision-making power or technological spinoffs.
As Arctic vulnerabilities grow and satellite security becomes more urgent, some experts argue Canada must think long-term about its defense. But the big questions — how much Canada would pay, what protection it would receive, and whether the Golden Dome will ever materialize, remain unresolved.
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