For months, the Trudeau government faced record-low approval ratings, with projections signaling a historic defeat for the Liberal Party. However, recent trade tensions with the United States under President Donald Trump appear to have triggered a surprising shift in public sentiment. Multiple polls now indicate a resurgence for the Liberals, narrowing the gap with the Conservatives and making the next election more competitive than previously anticipated.
A series of recent surveys suggest that the Liberal Party’s support has climbed to approximately 30 percent—significantly up from the 16 percent recorded just weeks ago in late December. While the Conservatives still lead with around 40 percent, what was once forecasted as a landslide victory has now become a more conventional majority scenario. Notably, regions such as Greater Toronto and Atlantic Canada remain strongholds for the Liberals, helping them retain a competitive standing.
This political rebound has coincided with a major trade dispute between Canada and the U.S. Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canadian exports ignited a wave of nationalistic sentiment among Canadians, with polls indicating that 84 percent of respondents planned to boycott American goods or travel in response. The controversy has also prompted policy shifts from the Trudeau government, including discussions about expanding Canada’s oil pipeline network—an issue previously dominated by the Conservatives.
Meanwhile, the upcoming Liberal leadership race appears to be another factor influencing voter attitudes. Polls indicate that much of the party’s unpopularity stemmed from personal dissatisfaction with Trudeau rather than the party itself. As frontrunner Mark Carney emerges as the likely successor, new surveys suggest he may be a more favorable candidate to negotiate with Trump compared to Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. This shift in leadership perception could further influence electoral outcomes.
Despite these developments, the road ahead remains challenging for the Liberals. Trump has already imposed 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, echoing his trade policies from 2018. Additionally, speculation is growing that Trudeau could call an early election immediately after the Liberal leadership vote in March. With tensions high and Canada’s political landscape shifting, the coming months could prove decisive in shaping the country’s next government.
