Residents in Russia’s second-largest city, St. Petersburg, are beginning to feel the tangible effects of the war in Ukraine as smoke and chemical odours from recent drone attacks on nearby oil infrastructure drift into surrounding areas. According to local accounts, the smell of burning fuel and industrial materials has periodically filled the air following strikes on two major Baltic Sea export terminals that play a key role in Russia’s energy trade.
The attacks targeted facilities at Primorsk and Ust-Luga, which together handle roughly two-fifths of Russia’s seaborne oil exports and account for nearly two percent of global oil supply. The sites sit more than 100 kilometres from St. Petersburg and serve as critical transit hubs for pipelines originating from western Siberia, the Ural region, and the Volga basin. Ukrainian long-range drones reportedly travelled over 1,000 kilometres to reach the terminals, igniting large storage tanks and shipping infrastructure in fires that burned for days.
For some residents, the consequences of these strikes are deeply personal. One St. Petersburg resident described noticing shifting smells ranging from diesel exhaust to burnt plastic beginning in late March, saying the experience brought the war closer to home than ever before. The attacks have also contributed to what analysts describe as the steepest decline in Russia’s Baltic oil exports since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with early estimates suggesting losses of about $1 billion.
With the Primorsk terminal primarily handling crude shipments and Ust-Luga serving as a large processing and export complex, disruptions at both locations have forced traders to reroute shipments to smaller Baltic and Black Sea ports that lack the capacity to absorb the additional volume. The strain on export logistics highlights how energy infrastructure has become a central target in Ukraine’s broader strategy to weaken Russia’s wartime finances.
Ukrainian analysts say the strikes are designed to limit Moscow’s ability to benefit from rising global oil prices following instability in the Middle East, particularly tensions affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Since even a modest increase in oil prices can significantly boost Russia’s monthly revenue, damaging export capacity could reduce the financial advantage created by global market volatility.
Despite the growing reach of Ukrainian strikes, observers suggest the Kremlin remains unlikely to change its negotiating stance. Analysts believe Russia will continue participating in diplomatic discussions while maintaining its military objectives, even as attacks on strategic infrastructure reshape the economic and psychological landscape of the conflict for civilians on both sides of the border.
