As Canada prepares to vote on April 28, political analysts say the fate of the next federal government may hinge on the 905 — the suburban belt surrounding Toronto, home to a high concentration of swing ridings and critical electoral weight. This region, encompassing Peel, York, Durham, and Halton, has long served as a decisive battleground between the Liberals and Conservatives. With over 30 seats up for grabs — more than all four Atlantic provinces combined — the 905’s influence could determine whether Canada ends up with a minority or majority government.
According to University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman, the 905 has historically flipped between the two leading parties, with the NDP rarely making inroads outside of downtown Toronto. The region was instrumental in delivering the Liberals their last majority win in 2015. However, recent polling showed the Conservatives were on track to dominate the region, with projections suggesting they could win up to 28 of 30 seats. That trend has since shifted dramatically.
Following Justin Trudeau’s resignation, the Liberals have seen a surge in national support, particularly after Mark Carney took the helm as party leader and Prime Minister. Carney, a former central banker with international credentials, appears to have reassured voters who are concerned about navigating economic uncertainty, especially amid a trade war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump. Several Liberal cabinet ministers who had previously decided not to run have now reversed their decisions, citing renewed confidence in Carney’s leadership.
Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre have both made frequent appearances in the 905, acknowledging its strategic importance. In the last federal election, the Liberals performed strongly across the GTA, particularly in Peel Region where they won 11 out of 12 seats. However, a 2024 byelection victory for the Conservatives in Toronto-St. Paul’s — a long-standing Liberal seat — has raised questions about whether the Conservatives could make broader gains in the area.
University of Windsor professor Lydia Miljan noted that this election is less about specific policy proposals and more about leadership credibility, particularly in handling economic volatility and foreign trade pressures. While Conservatives remain dominant in Western Canada, they struggle to convert that popularity into seats in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic. That makes the 905 not just a prize — but a necessity for any path to power.
In 2011, Stephen Harper’s Conservative majority was built in large part by sweeping the GTA suburbs. Today, the stakes are just as high. With polls shifting and the Liberals regaining momentum, all eyes are once again on the 905 as the region that could make or break the next federal government.
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