Donald Trump is currently leading in national and battleground state polls in the United States, making him a strong contender for the next presidential election. While many Canadians may dislike Trump, campaigning against him for domestic political gain could backfire for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
A recent Abacus Data poll shows that most Canadians prefer Joe Biden as the next U.S. president, with 66% supporting him, compared to 34% for Trump. Trudeau may think that tying Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to Trump has no downsides, given Trump’s unpopularity in Canada.
However, Trump is currently ahead in both national and battleground state polls. In these critical states, Trump leads by 7% in Georgia, 4.7% in Michigan, 4% in Wisconsin, and 3% in Nevada. He also holds substantial leads against Biden in Ohio (12%), Florida (11%), and Arizona (6.7%).
Even in California, where Biden has a majority of the vote, Trump still polls at around 30-32%, similar to the percentage of the vote Trudeau received in Canada’s 2021 election.
Trudeau’s strategy of campaigning against Trump and using negative news cycles to drive swing voters away from Poilievre carries political risks. If it fails, Trudeau may have to deal with a victorious Trump in 2025, which could lead to a more protectionist and antagonistic approach towards Canada.
Moreover, Biden’s popularity among Canadians has decreased since his election, with only 66% supporting him compared to 84% in 2020. Trump’s current polling numbers are the highest for a Republican candidate in recent years, and Trudeau’s political game may not yield the desired results.
In conclusion, Trump is currently leading in the U.S., and Trudeau’s strategy may not work as planned, posing risks to Canada’s relationship with the U.S. and its future dealings with a potentially re-elected Trump.