The United States and its allies are on high alert, anticipating major missile or drone strikes by Iran or its proxies targeting military and government sites in Israel. This potential escalation in the six-month-old conflict is seen as a significant development, according to sources familiar with the intelligence.
The strike, likely to involve high-precision missiles, could occur in the coming days, with assessments indicating it’s a matter of when, not if, it will happen. Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged over 1% to surpass $90 a barrel upon receiving this news, with oil prices up 16% this year due to increased war risk premium in the Middle East.
Iran has issued threats of retaliation against Israel following an attack on a diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria, which resulted in the death of senior Iranian military officials. While Israel has not explicitly claimed responsibility for the attack, it has traditionally maintained ambiguity regarding its operations in Syria and Lebanon.
Intelligence suggests that while Iran’s ally Hezbollah in Lebanon remains a potential source of attack, the strike might not necessarily originate from Israel’s north. Western allies have been informed that Israeli government and military facilities could be targeted, but civilian facilities are not expected to be attacked.
Israeli officials are in agreement with these assessments, with public warnings issued to Iran that any attack on Israeli soil would prompt retaliation against Iranian territory. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated vows of retaliation against Israel for the Damascus strike, equating it to an attack on Iranian territory.
Foreign diplomatic missions are making contingency plans for potential strikes, with requests from Israeli authorities for emergency supplies like generators and satellite phones. While there are preparations for potential evacuation, there are no immediate plans for western missions to evacuate.
Despite US efforts to push for a cease-fire in Gaza, the Biden administration has signaled readiness to support Israel in the event of an attack by Iran or its proxies. The implications of such an attack on the conflict’s duration and scope remain uncertain, with the possibility of a direct Iranian strike on an Israeli city heightening tensions significantly.
Israeli embassies have been considered potential targets for attacks following the Damascus strike, leading to the closure of several missions worldwide. Hezbollah, based in southern Lebanon, remains Iran’s main proxy group and has been engaged in frequent exchanges of fire with Israeli forces since the Gaza conflict began.
Overall, the anticipation of an imminent missile strike on Israel underscores the volatile nature of the region and the ongoing tensions between Iran, its proxies, and Israel.
